Better Late Than Never Wk4 Analysis + Wk5 Predictions

Week 4 Recap

Damn, I'm Good: Ravens, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, Broncos
Link Picked These: Chiefs, Panthers, Lions, Bucs, Saints, Giants, Cowboys

Week 4 Ramblings

Yea, I'm late. Lazy. Whatever.
Five games decided by three or less points, three more by a TD. Eight of the 14 games, talk about parity? The Browns and Vikings showed why you never know what will happen in a divisional game. The Jets showed why Rex Ryan kept his mouth shut this offseason, and the AFC North defenses seem to have migrated West for the season. You read that right. The NFC West defenses are...respectable. It may be the best defensive division in the league at this point. It's so shocking, I can only type in fragments. As I'm doing this so late in the week, the stats are a bit thrown off due to the Thursday night game, so my rant stops here.

Week 5 Predictions and Analysis

Byes: Cowboys, Lions, Raiders, Bucs

Thursday

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) @ St. Louis Rams (2-2):

We're pretending I did this on time. My reasoning behind picking the Cardinals was pretty simple. The Rams are the Rams. Granted, they beat Seattle in week 4, but I figured they wouldn't be able to put together back-to-back, especially against the better offense featured by Arizona.

Sunday

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2):

Believe it or not, this is the #6 defense at the #5 defense. These teams played in preseason, with the Eagles winning 24-23, sans Mike Vick. I can see this game going similarly. Vick is back, but has been a turnover machine thus far, and now plays against a Dick LeBeau defense. I'll take the home team in another potential close one.

Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2):

While playing a bit better than expected, the Colts simply don't have the firepower to outgun the Packers. The Colts do have a slight psychological edge due to the bye week and the cancer diagnosis of coach Pagano. Will that be enough for a win? Probably not, but damnit would it help the Saints.

Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2):
I think at this point, it may as well be assumed the Browns will lose. The Browns at least remind us what an actual, talentless 0-4 team looks like.

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (2-2):
So the Falcons' offense wasn't quite as good once the real officials returned. Color me shocked. This is another one of those random gut calls, but I think Washington takes the upset.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1):
Two teams that are quietly having good seasons, though with different results. The Dolphins somehow have the #9 offense in the NFL (mainly due to rushing), while the Bengals are a bit more balanced. This is another one of those "rookie QB vs AFCN defense at home" games.

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3):
We may actually have a Brady Quinn sighting this week. Matt Cassel is on a shorter and shorter leash by the week, as he continues walking his path of wild mediocrity paved by so many USC QBs that walked it before him. The only way the Chiefs take this one down is if they can force the run game to work against a Ravens defense that has no reason to fear the pass.

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3):
<Insert game winning INT joke here>. Mammoth corners against a tiny Steve Smith, whose receiving yards have been on the downtick, does not bode well. As I mentioned earlier, the NFCW has some legit defenses, and I don't think Carolina has the personnel to overcome it.

Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3):
Well, at least no one will be at the game to watch the Jags lose.

Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2):
Another year, another Manning/Brady matchup. This should be a good game, as I don't think either team is clearly better than the other. I give this one to the Pats, due to home field and Jeff Lee's beard.

Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1):
Team that got wrecked by a Patriots team that didn't even feel like playing the first half against a team that just blanked the Jets. Child, please.

Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesotta Vikings (3-1):
A matchup between my "underrated teams of the year". At least I'm running 50% on this. An underrated Vikings defense will matchup against a Titans team that will be turning to Matt Hasselbeck due to a Jake Locker shoulder injury, and a hopefully back-from-the-dead Chris Johnson. I feel this is a pretty cut and dry Vikings win, but don't be surprised if it's close. The 'Beck has a way of pulling one amazing game out of his ass, just as much as he's likely to put up a Romoesque clunker.

Sunday Night Football

San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4):

Things are, believe it or not, looking up for the Saints. Last week, we barely lost a game against an opponent that was supposed to bury us. A welcome change from losing to inferior teams by more points. We looked good last week. The defense actually held the Packers to 7 points in the second half, albeit the most critical points. Hartley may have been the first kicker to ever go 3/4 on 6 attempts. His ice's ice was iced. I'm a "win as a team, lose as a team" guy, but he needs to get his head on straight. Bad. On the line this week are several things, the first being the streak. Drew Brees has a chance to beat Johnny U's 50+ year old record of consecutive passes. The game is also primetime, at home, against a good team. We've traditionally done well in this scenario. The biggest factor, however, could be Sean Payton's mere presence in the Dome. If we can't get up for this game, we can't get up for any game. Also on the line, in my opinion, is any chance at recovering the season. A win here would be pivotal towards not just a winning record, but a playoff appearance. A loss would likely bury us. When we look back at this season in February, we may very well be looking back at this week 5 game as the biggest game of the season.

Monday Night Football

Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2):

Want to know how bad USC QBs are? One is likely about to get booted for a punt protector. Mark Sanchez is bad. Tim Tebow is actually worse. The Jets just got blanked and now play another great defense. I don't see any way Sanchez can steal a victory from the Texans, it's just a matter of when he gets pulled. Sanchez doesn't strike me as the type of guy that would take a demotion lightly. Should the Tebow get the start next week, he'd draw the Colts, Pats, Dolphins, then a bye, followed by two trips to the West to visit Seattle and St. Louis. If he struggles, what then? A pouty Mark Sanchez? Can you really turn back? Haters of the Jets, prepare to watch the Texans send the Jets into a tailspin.

Bonus Fantasy Advice of the Week

It looks like Trey will be starting Ryan Mathews and Eric Weddle against the Saints. Consider them both starters this week.