Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Week 3 Ramblings With Week 4 Analysis and Predictions

Week 3 Recap

Damn, I'm Good: Giants, Cowboys, Bills, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Texans, Ravens
Link Picked These: Colts, Saints, 49ers, Lions, Chargers, Eagles, Steelers, Packers

Week 3 Ramblings

8-8 for the week, bringing me to 22-26. What a season. I wonder what the hell is up in the NFC this season, as most of my misses have been in the conference. Even with an underrated defense, I still didn't think the Cardinals would come close to a .500 record. Well, they're almost halfway there already. Joining them in the undefeated club are the Texans, which I'm sure doesn't surprise many. The last 3-0 team is Atlanta. I'm getting a "2010" feeling about this Falcons team. If you'll remember, they had some of the best luck ever seen on route to a 13-3 record and a home playoff game, in which they were wrecked by the Packers, 48-21. I guess we'll see about that one, as the season is still young. On the flip side of things, the Saints are dead last in the overall standings, while the Packers, Lions, Patriots and Steelers all sit at just 1 win each. For those of you keeping score, those are 5 of the 12 playoff teams from last season.

The replacement scenario has been beat to death, so I'm not going to harp on it (yet). As bad as they're playing, the Saints would still be 2-1 if not for egregious officiating errors. I thought about including gifs of all the points gifted to our opponents, as well as our points taken off the board, but I don't want to kill your browsers. Now with New England and Green Bay being publicly screwed, maybe we'll finally see some movement on this front. Kraft is one of Goodell's master puppeteers, and won't take any conceived slight against his team lightly.

Week 4 Predictions and Analysis

Byes: Colts, Steelers

Cleveland Browns (0-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1):
Ah, the Browns. Just when you thought you felt bad about your team. The last of my "will these guys even win a game" teams, the Browns get to travel to M&T Bank Stadium to get wrecked by the Ravens. Wait, was that too harsh? No. Still the Browns. Against the Ravens.

New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1):
Always a random matchup, the Bills seem to either get a hole stomped in them by New England, or keep it close and pull one out. This game will be the former, not the latter. The Bills will be down C.J. Spiller, but luckily gain a Fred Jackson in return. The Pats, who haven't met a tight end they wouldn't sign, will be down Aaron Hernandez, but have super soldja Kellen Winslow to fall back on. Oh boy! At any rate, I don't see the hoodie losing a third consecutive game.

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1):
Y'know, I'm not as surprised at the Vikings beating the 49ers (I came into the season thinking the Vikes were underrated) as I should be. If the 49ers defense breaks down, they don't have the QB to overcome. The conglomeration of Marim Techez doesn't have the ability of one Christian Ponder, nor can Shonn Green even spell "Adrian Peterson". Ah man. Do the Jets and Vikings play this year? It's a no-brainer. Tebow can't beat a Christian. I digress. The 49ers will be pissed, and the Jets aren't good enough to overcome that defense. The first week without Revis will come with some adjustments that may or may not work yet.
Saints Spin: Maybe the loss of Revis galvanizes the Jets and they pull it off, at home. New Orleans could sure use another contender at 2-2.

Seattle Seahawks (2-1, kinda) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2):
Can Russell Wilson throw another game winning interception? Brett Favre is so jealous right now. Anyway, we find ourselves looking at an NFC West interdivisional matchup. The Seahawks have pretty much owned the Rams over their last three games, which makes this an easy pick. The Rams win it. I have no good reason other than gut feeling, but I'm calling for the upset on this one.
Saints Spin: The upset would give us yet 2 more NFC teams at 2-2. Make it so, St. Louis Jacksons.

Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0):
Carolina's in the midst of a Cam Newton sophomore slump that anyone named Trey Hardesty didn't see coming. Immaturity issues are starting to show, and the locker room is starting to look fractured thanks to the ever-classy Steve Smith. I think the Panthers put some points up on the dirty birds, but not enough to win it. Ugh. I just picked the Falcons to win.
Saints Spin: The obvious answer now is pull for the Panthers. It's arguable if tiebreaks come later in the season, we still have a chance to sweep Atlanta, whereas we're already down one to Carolina. This early in the season, we're going for Carolina.

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2):
I applaud the Vikes for getting up big for last week's game, at least as much as I can congratulate Minnesota. The Lions are on a slide and may not have Matt Stafford for this game. However, Shaun Hill is a more than capable backup and the Lions possess some firepower.
Saints Spin: Pull for the Lions. Yet two more 2-2 teams in the NFC? I'll take it here, and twice on Sunday. See what I did there?

San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2):
Seriously, Rivers? 3 points against Atlanta? It pleases me that you're going to lose this game too. KC, at home, division game. It may be considered the upset, but I'm going Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0):
Thus far, I'm fairly certain there are kickers with more rushing yards than Chris Johnson, which doesn't bode well for Jake Locker. What a team the Texans have been able to assemble. CJ doesn't have a damn chance against that Houston defense, which will likely shut down Locker. Here's hoping for some garbage time points for my team while the Titans are in catchup mode.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jones-Drews (1-2):
MJD went MJD against the Colts last week, rolling up 177 yards on the ground. Unfortunately for MJD, Greg Manusky is not Mike Zimmer. The Bengals knock out yet another young QB in week 4.

Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (1-2):
Oakland finally notched their first win of the season, while Denver is on a two game skid. While efficient, Manning still isn't Manning. This is one of those game where the home team gets the nod.

Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0):
A battle of two "will these guys win a game" teams. GFY, Arizona. I've picked against the Cards all season, but they get the nod in this matchup. Miami may also be without Reggie Bush, after an admitted bounty from the Jets took him out of last weeks game.
Saints Spin: Miami showing up for this game would be peachy. They stomped Oakland and kept it close with the Jets, so let's see what happens.

Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2):
This game hinges on which Bucs team shows up. Will it be the team that was held to under 17 points in two games, or the team that rolled up 34 against the Giants? The answer to that question picks your winner. I'm giving the Bucs the home field nod here, but neither would surprise me.
Saints Spin: We're still early enough in the season to worry about raw wins over potential tiebreakers, so pull for Washington.

New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2):
Spoiler alert: I'm never going to pick against the Saints
Green Bay's gonna be pissed. Pissed. Meanwhile, the Saints enter this game needing a victory. Needing. If the dejected Saints team we've seen the last three weeks shows up, we're dead in the water. I've maintained the Saints needed 2-3 wins by the time Vitt took over or we were in deep. Spoiler alert, we have 3 games until he's back. I still have faith in this team. 2 of the 3 games we were officiated out of, and still haven't been so out of a game we couldn't come back. Where this team misses Sean Payton in a huge way is his ability to motivate the team despite being screwed by the officials, or poor play from a particular player/position group/entire team. Kromer does his best mannequin impression where Payton wouldn't think twice about burning a timeout just to chew some ass. I would have expected Brees to take some of this in his hands, more in relation to the offensive players (mainly the line), but I haven't seen as much as I would like. The bright side about the KC game? We kept them out the end zone on legitimate plays. Remove that 91 yd TD (which the officials should have, watch the replay and try to find Martez Wilson. Clue: he's the one getting a big hug from that nice man) and we held Jamaal Charles to 4.4YPC. That's still bad, but considering how dynamic of a player Charles is, it could be worse. Hey, I'm taking any silver lining I can. Believe it or not, we actually had 1 more sack than Seattle coming into week 3. Maybe getting a couple shots on Rodgers will wake the defense up. It can only get better. We've traditionally played down to bad teams, and played our best against the better, so look for it this week.

New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1):
Another damn-near pick 'em. On the one hand, I usually go with the home team in a pick 'em divisional matchup, but Vick's played like garbage, and the Giants have the dogs to reign him in. I'm going with the Giants here, but it's close.
Saints Spin: These two teams play each other again, and we play them both, so it comes down to who you'd rather have to face in the playoffs. I'm going Giants.

Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1):
The NFC North may have the worst offensive lines in the league. The Cowboys have this guy named DeMarcus Ware, perhaps you've heard of him. For you fantasy players out there that are real (wo)men and play IDP, trade 4 first round picks for Ware this week. You may still get a steal. At any rate, Cutler's leadership is in question, and his offensive line is still competing with Green Bay to see who can get the most sacks this season. Maybe they're confused on how games are actually scored. I don't see Chicago overcoming Dallas' defense in this game.
Saints Spin: We play Dallas this year, so even with a win this week, we can still take a win from them and gain a tiebreaker.



Bonus Fantasy Advice of the Week

It looks like Trey will be starting Randall Cobb, Cedric Benson and Tramon Williams against the Saints. Consider them all starters this week.





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