Week 6 Pick-A-Thon!

Week 4 Recap:

Damn, I'm Good:
Link Obviously Picked These:

Week 6 Picks, and Maybe Some Analysis

Byes: Saints, Panthers, Jaguars (at least this game won't be blacked out), Bears

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4):
Did you know this is the first time I've spelled "Tennessee" correctly without spellcheck? While I still maintain the Titans are a better team than they're shown (I refuse to be wrong, damnit), they aren't better than the Steelers. However, the Steelers are coming off a short week and a game played against the in-state rival Eagles. Not quite on upset alert, but expect a closer game than advertised.

Sunday

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3):
We really lost to KC? The ever-so-dreamy Brady Quinn will attempt to charm his way to a win against the Bucs. Coming off a bye, I'd venture a well-rested Bucs team will give Quinn plenty of hugs (read: sacks) but not a win.

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1):
Did you know the Cowboys have never defeated the Ravens? This trend continues. Despite the Ravens defense having some fallout compared to previous years, there are still playmakers on this team, and Tony Romo loves giving defense playmakers some plays. The Cowboys have a solid defense thus far, but the best QB they've seen is either Eli or Cutler, depending on your definition of good.

St. Louis Rams (3-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3):
The NFC West continues its dominance of the NFL...not really, this is probably just the closest I'll ever be to being able to type that sentence. Both these teams are playing a big better than their records, but with the Rams coming off a big win at home, I can see them dropping this one to the Fins.

Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2):
Did you know I still haven't spelled "Philadelphia" correctly yet? The Lions are dreadfully underperforming this season, but do have the advantage of coming off a bye. This one feels like a shoot-out that comes down to the wire for me. This is a "the home team gets the nod" case, though I almost want to make this an upset special.
Saints Spin: You could call this one either way. The Eagles currently lead the NFC East, with the Giants in a tie, but facing the 49ers. An Eagles win and Giants loss would knock another Wild Card team down a peg, while not really hurting our standing too much. You could make a case for the Lions and Giants both winning, but I'm going with the Eagles here.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (0-5):
I still can't spell Cincinnati either. This factoid is the most interesting part of this game.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (2-3):
Yet I can spell Indianapolis...I have a bit of trouble with this one as well. I think the Colts are actually a better team, but they're away, coming off a big win and the Jets are getting a bit desperate. I'm going with the Jets, against my better judgment. I look forward to the Reggie Wayne vs Antonio Cromartie matchup. I think Wayne makes Cro his bitch, but we shall see.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-0):
The Falcons traditionally own the Raiders, and I can't even make a case for an upset here. Pull for the Falcons' luck to run out, but don't expect it.

New England Patriots (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2):
The Seahawks have been crazy good against the pass this season, partly because both corners are like 8 feet tall, holding Aaron Rodgers to 223 yards and Tony Romo to 251. Newsflash: Brady's better than both these guys. I don't see a slaughter, but I expect the Pats to take this one down.

Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1):
Wait, the Bills won two games? When did that happen? It'd be nice if they could help the Saints out with a win, but...no.

New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1):
How is this not a night game? Should be a good one. I believe the 49ers get a little sweet, sweet revenge against the Giants, which is also the best case scenario for the Saints. Although the Giants offense is better than the 49ers, the 49ers defense is that much better.

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-3):
If you haven't been paying attention, the Vikings lead the NFC North. Shocker, huh? Had I started doing this blog before the season, I'd be able to say "you read it here first", but alas, I did not. With vomit in my mouth, I felt the Vikings were an underrated team, but they've surprised even me. Christian Ponder has been efficient as hell passing the ball (no picks before last week's stat curse), while the Redskins have been efficient at getting passed on. A "mildly" concussed RGIII may play, but I'd venture to guess his runs will be limited.
Saints Spin: We've lost to the Redskins, so in a tiebreak scenario, we'd need to be a game up on them. Pull for the Vikings.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0):
The Packers are a good team. They should be 3-2. The Texans are scary good, crushing almost every opponent they've played. The scarier part? They've yet to involve Andre' Johnson in any heavy way. I expect the Texans to go to the AFC Championship Game, but they'll have to, and likely will, hit 6-0 first.

Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-2):
Hey, one of these 2's in the Chargers' loss column is from us! Manning and the Broncos haven't seemed to get it together yet, and this is a home game for the Chargers, making this pick easier than it should be (considering it's a division game).

New Orleans Saints (1-4) @ BYE (0-1):
The Saints an are amazing 45-0 against BYE. I see that trend continuing. It's debatable if it's a good or bad thing to have the bye after our long-awaited first win. Does it kill our momentum, or give us time to relax and refocus after that Sunday Night game? For the second game in a row, the Saints' defense held a good offense to 7 points. Look, I don't care how many yards what team rolls up on us, yards do not win games. Points do. Period. We also only have to deal with one more game with Aaron "Mannequin" Kromer doing his head coach impression. The team's been on an upward swing and finally started showing the fight and grit that got them through so many close ones over the years, as opposed to the looks of dejection we've seen over previous week. Maybe it was the big spotlight? Maybe it was coach in the building? Whatever it was, let's hope they hold onto it through the bye and going into Tampa.

Better Late Than Never Wk4 Analysis + Wk5 Predictions

Week 4 Recap

Damn, I'm Good: Ravens, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, Broncos
Link Picked These: Chiefs, Panthers, Lions, Bucs, Saints, Giants, Cowboys

Week 4 Ramblings

Yea, I'm late. Lazy. Whatever.
Five games decided by three or less points, three more by a TD. Eight of the 14 games, talk about parity? The Browns and Vikings showed why you never know what will happen in a divisional game. The Jets showed why Rex Ryan kept his mouth shut this offseason, and the AFC North defenses seem to have migrated West for the season. You read that right. The NFC West defenses are...respectable. It may be the best defensive division in the league at this point. It's so shocking, I can only type in fragments. As I'm doing this so late in the week, the stats are a bit thrown off due to the Thursday night game, so my rant stops here.

Week 5 Predictions and Analysis

Byes: Cowboys, Lions, Raiders, Bucs

Thursday

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) @ St. Louis Rams (2-2):

We're pretending I did this on time. My reasoning behind picking the Cardinals was pretty simple. The Rams are the Rams. Granted, they beat Seattle in week 4, but I figured they wouldn't be able to put together back-to-back, especially against the better offense featured by Arizona.

Sunday

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2):

Believe it or not, this is the #6 defense at the #5 defense. These teams played in preseason, with the Eagles winning 24-23, sans Mike Vick. I can see this game going similarly. Vick is back, but has been a turnover machine thus far, and now plays against a Dick LeBeau defense. I'll take the home team in another potential close one.

Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2):

While playing a bit better than expected, the Colts simply don't have the firepower to outgun the Packers. The Colts do have a slight psychological edge due to the bye week and the cancer diagnosis of coach Pagano. Will that be enough for a win? Probably not, but damnit would it help the Saints.

Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2):
I think at this point, it may as well be assumed the Browns will lose. The Browns at least remind us what an actual, talentless 0-4 team looks like.

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (2-2):
So the Falcons' offense wasn't quite as good once the real officials returned. Color me shocked. This is another one of those random gut calls, but I think Washington takes the upset.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1):
Two teams that are quietly having good seasons, though with different results. The Dolphins somehow have the #9 offense in the NFL (mainly due to rushing), while the Bengals are a bit more balanced. This is another one of those "rookie QB vs AFCN defense at home" games.

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3):
We may actually have a Brady Quinn sighting this week. Matt Cassel is on a shorter and shorter leash by the week, as he continues walking his path of wild mediocrity paved by so many USC QBs that walked it before him. The only way the Chiefs take this one down is if they can force the run game to work against a Ravens defense that has no reason to fear the pass.

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3):
<Insert game winning INT joke here>. Mammoth corners against a tiny Steve Smith, whose receiving yards have been on the downtick, does not bode well. As I mentioned earlier, the NFCW has some legit defenses, and I don't think Carolina has the personnel to overcome it.

Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3):
Well, at least no one will be at the game to watch the Jags lose.

Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2):
Another year, another Manning/Brady matchup. This should be a good game, as I don't think either team is clearly better than the other. I give this one to the Pats, due to home field and Jeff Lee's beard.

Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1):
Team that got wrecked by a Patriots team that didn't even feel like playing the first half against a team that just blanked the Jets. Child, please.

Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesotta Vikings (3-1):
A matchup between my "underrated teams of the year". At least I'm running 50% on this. An underrated Vikings defense will matchup against a Titans team that will be turning to Matt Hasselbeck due to a Jake Locker shoulder injury, and a hopefully back-from-the-dead Chris Johnson. I feel this is a pretty cut and dry Vikings win, but don't be surprised if it's close. The 'Beck has a way of pulling one amazing game out of his ass, just as much as he's likely to put up a Romoesque clunker.

Sunday Night Football

San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4):

Things are, believe it or not, looking up for the Saints. Last week, we barely lost a game against an opponent that was supposed to bury us. A welcome change from losing to inferior teams by more points. We looked good last week. The defense actually held the Packers to 7 points in the second half, albeit the most critical points. Hartley may have been the first kicker to ever go 3/4 on 6 attempts. His ice's ice was iced. I'm a "win as a team, lose as a team" guy, but he needs to get his head on straight. Bad. On the line this week are several things, the first being the streak. Drew Brees has a chance to beat Johnny U's 50+ year old record of consecutive passes. The game is also primetime, at home, against a good team. We've traditionally done well in this scenario. The biggest factor, however, could be Sean Payton's mere presence in the Dome. If we can't get up for this game, we can't get up for any game. Also on the line, in my opinion, is any chance at recovering the season. A win here would be pivotal towards not just a winning record, but a playoff appearance. A loss would likely bury us. When we look back at this season in February, we may very well be looking back at this week 5 game as the biggest game of the season.

Monday Night Football

Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2):

Want to know how bad USC QBs are? One is likely about to get booted for a punt protector. Mark Sanchez is bad. Tim Tebow is actually worse. The Jets just got blanked and now play another great defense. I don't see any way Sanchez can steal a victory from the Texans, it's just a matter of when he gets pulled. Sanchez doesn't strike me as the type of guy that would take a demotion lightly. Should the Tebow get the start next week, he'd draw the Colts, Pats, Dolphins, then a bye, followed by two trips to the West to visit Seattle and St. Louis. If he struggles, what then? A pouty Mark Sanchez? Can you really turn back? Haters of the Jets, prepare to watch the Texans send the Jets into a tailspin.

Bonus Fantasy Advice of the Week

It looks like Trey will be starting Ryan Mathews and Eric Weddle against the Saints. Consider them both starters this week.